Ⅰ.Analysis of recent price increases:
1. Supply and demand
Yn 2020, the world’s top steel production capacity is China, the top steel export volume is also China, and the second is India. And because Indian production is currently limited by the impact of the COVID, the world’s major steel exports still have to be met through China’s exports. Lykwols, according to China’s current environmental protection policy requirements, after July, all steel factories must limit production by 30% by December. Moreover, regulatory agencies are becoming more and more strict in monitoring the completion of indicators. It is expected that global steel demand will continue to rise due to economic stimulus policies in the future. By the end of December, the imbalance between supply and demand will continue to exist in the medium term.
2. Electricity price
The cost of electricity prices may rise in the future. China’s carbon emission trading market has expanded and opened up: power generation companies will be included in carbon emission quota management.
3. Iron ore price
According to the analysis of customs import data, the import price of iron ore increased by an average of 29% from January to June.
Derneist, the monthly price shows a step-up trend. According to the market response, the iron ore price still has no downward trend in the second half of the year.
4. Inflation impact
According to World Bank data, Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) (pic1)shows that the global economy has continued to decline for three consecutive years. Affected by the epidemic, the decline in 2020 was even more pronounced. Governments of various countries have adopted loose monetary policies, leading to a continuous increase in the risk of inflation.
This also affected the increase in steel prices at the macro level.
Pic 1 Inflation,consumer prices(annual%)2010-020
Ⅱ.Reasons for China’s low steel prices in June:
1.Government intervention
At the end of May, the China Iron and Steel Association(CISA) summoned several major steel producers in China for a meeting, which formed a signal of a blow to the market. Dêrom, steel futures prices reacted quickly and fell, and the spot prices fell along with the futures prices.
2.Domestic demand
June is in the rainy season, China’s domestic construction steel demand declined
3.tax policy
In the policy issued on April 26, the China Taxation Bureau cancelled tax rebates for 146 steel products. Dit hat laat ta in fermindering fan de eksport fan guon produkten, en stielen fraach is ûnderdrukt.
Ⅲ.Konklúzje
Belied kin prizen op koarte termyn regelje, mar kin net beynfloedzje de algemiene priis trend feroarings yn 'e lange termyn. Yn it algemien, útsein oerheid yntervinsje, yn in folsleine merk omjouwing, de takomstige grûnstofprizen sille fluktuearje 100-300 RMB / TON út aktuele prizen.
Neffens de hjoeddeistige situaasje, it wurdt ferwachte dat dizze betingsten oant oktober dit jier hanthavene wurde.
Ⅳ.Referinsje
[1]Sina Customs: Sina syn izererts ymport fan jannewaris oant maaie
[2]Tangshan City syn Office of Atmospheric Pollution Previnsje en kontrôle útbrocht de “Tangshan City July Air Quality Improvement Plan”
[3]Myn stiel futures trend chart
[4]Carbon útstjit hannelsmerk offisjeel lansearre
[5]Oankundiging fan de State Belesting Administration oangeande it annulearjen fan eksport belesting rebats foar guon stiel produkten
[6]Tangshan rôp alle stielproduksjebedriuwen yn 'e stêd op
[7]De People's Bank of China besleat op july de reserve-easkferhâlding foar finansjele ynstellingen te ferleegjen 15, 2021.
Ⅶ.Kontakt mei ús opnimme
As jo mear witte wolle oer de analyze, nim dan kontakt mei ús op.
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