Ⅰ.Tus nqi tsim khoom
Cov nqi tsim khoom hlau yog tsim los ntawm cov khoom siv raw —— hlau ore, nqi zog, nyiaj txiag nqi, tshuab puas tu, tus nqi zog.
1.Cov khoom nyoos
Raws li lub forward hlau ore nqi index, Peb lub hlis twg tus nqi tseem qis dua 30% los ntawm 2018.As tus nqi nce ntawm yam khoom xws li kev ua haujlwm , Nws yog tsis yooj yim sua kom rov qab mus rau 2018.Yog li cov nqi hlau ore yuav nyob twj ywm ntawm peb lub hlis twg, ntab me ntsis.
2. Nqi zog
Raws li cov nqi hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb tau nce thiab cov nqi hluav taws xob tau ntaus cov ntaub ntawv siab, qhov chaw ntawm Tuam Tshoj liberalize hluav taws xob nqi thiab tso cai rau cov nqi hluav taws xob fluctuate.Qhov no yuav ncaj qha ua rau cov nqi ntau lawm rau steel mills siv hluav taws xob furnaces.Txawm li cas los xij., raws li kev tshawb fawb ntawm tsoomfwv cov ntaub ntawv, fais fab nqi tsis nce indefinitely, nce mus txog 20 feem pua ntawm peb lub quarter dhau los
Tib lub sijhawm, vim tuaj txog ntawm lub caij ntuj no thiab nce cua sov xav tau, Tsoomfwv Suav tau hloov kho lub zog hluav taws xob hauv tsev tsim hluav taws xob los tswj cov nqi hluav taws xob thaum nce cov khoom siv hluav taws xob.Coal yav tom ntej poob rau peb zaug sib law liag, tab sis cov nqi coke tseem nce ntxiv.
Steel cog cov nqi tau nce ntxiv raws li qhov cuam tshuam no.
Coke price index chart
Metallurgical coke Shanxi lag luam nqe
2021-08-06 2021-11-04
Qib: thawj qib metallurgical coke
Thermal thee Hebei lag luam nqe
Calorific nqi: 5500Kcal / kg
3. Tus nqi nyiaj txiag
Raws li tsab ntawv ceeb toom txog kev siv nyiaj txiag ntawm Tuam Txhab Tuam Txhab Tuam Txhab hauv lub quarter thib ob thiab cov ntaub ntawv txheeb xyuas nyiaj txiag luam tawm nyob rau lub quarter thib peb., txoj cai nyiaj txiag rau 2021 zoo li yuav zoo rau kev lag luam tiag.Steel mills ua lub peev loj los tuav kev lag luam tiag tiag, ib lub sij hawm ntev yuav tsum tau nyob rau hauv ib tug loj npaum li cas ntawm peev.Txoj cai no zoo heev rau cov nqi ntau lawm.
Ⅱ.Kev sib raug zoo ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev xav tau
1.Kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb xav tau
Raws li kev tsim PMI, yuav luag txhua lub ntiaj teb PMI ntau dua 50. Kev thov thoob ntiaj teb tseem nyob ntawm qhov nce.Tab sis European PMI tau qeeb hauv peb lub hlis dhau los.
Kev loj hlob hauv Tebchaws Meskas thiab Brazil tau nce ntxiv.Nws xav tias yuav nce siab thaum Lub Ob Hlis.
Tag nrho kev thov rau steel yuav nce ntxiv, tab sis nws yuav siv sij hawm tsawg kawg ib lub hlis twg mus kom txog qhov sib npaug.
2. Kev lag luam hauv tsev
Raws li kev lag luam vaj tse poob qis, kev tsim kho kev lag luam shrinks, thiab steel thov txo. Ntxiv rau, raws li kev lag luam steel cov khoom lag luam qhov xwm txheej hauv lub quarter thib peb, nws tseem tuaj yeem pom tias kev lag luam hauv tsev xav tau poob qis.
Tib lub sijhawm, Kev thov kev lag luam hauv tsev muaj kev cuam tshuam ntau dua rau Tuam Tshoj tus nqi steel. Yog li ntawd, vim kev poob qis ntawm kev lag luam xav tau yav tom ntej, tus nqi siab heev yuav tsis tshwm sim.
3. Kev muab khoom
Kev xa khoom hauv tsev raug cuam tshuam los ntawm txoj cai carbon neutral, qhia txog lub xeev contraction. Txawm hais tias qhov teeb meem hluav taws xob twb tau suab nrov rau tsoomfwv, dig muag carbon neutrality yuav muaj kev cuam tshuam loj rau kev tsim khoom thiab lub neej. Txawm li cas los, nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej, thee yuav tsum tau so kom txaus, thiab steel ntau lawm raws li lub tuam txhab siv hluav taws xob siab yuav tseem yuav raug txwv ntxiv. Nyob rau lub quarter tom ntej, nyob rau hauv chaotic steel lag luam nyob rau hauv lub xyoo dhau los, tsoomfwv Suav tau kawm paub txaus kom tsis txhob muaj tus nqi siab nyob rau lub quarter thib ob ntawm lub xyoo no.
Ⅲ.Xaus
Nyob rau lub quarter tom ntej, Raws li kev xav tau hauv tsev txias thiab cov khoom siv ruaj khov, steel nqi yuav maj mam deviate los ntawm tus nqi uas yog ntau dua li tus nqi nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, thiab rov qab mus rau qhov hloov pauv tsis tu ncua. Tab sis tseem cuam tshuam los ntawm kev nce nqi ntawm ntau yam khoom tsim los ntawm kev sib kis, tus nqi tag nrho yuav tsis pom qhov poob zoo li pob tsuas.
Cov lus qhia txog kev yuav khoom:
Muab cov kev cai ntawm tus nqi ntawm xyoo dhau los thiab kev kwv yees kev lag luam, kev txiav txim tuaj yeem muab tso rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis-Lub Ib Hlis. Tus nqi yuav qis dua nyob rau lub sijhawm ze. Yog tias xav tau cov khoom siv raw, nws kuj tuaj yeem ua tiav tsis ntev los no.
Ⅳ.Reference
[1]Txoj Cai Tswj Nyiaj Txiag Ua Haujlwm Daim Ntawv Qhia Txog Tib Neeg Lub Txhab Nyiaj Txiag ntawm Tuam Tshoj nyob rau lub quarter thib ob ntawm 2021
[2]Cov nqi hlau nyob rau hauv South China cheeb tsam tuaj yeem nce rau lub Kaum Hli thiab nyuaj rau poob
[3]Kuv steel futures trend chart
[4]Kev soj ntsuam ntawm cov hlau ore xav tau raws li npua hlau tsim cov txheej txheem ntev steel mills
[5]Daim ntawv ceeb toom los ntawm National Development thiab Reform Commission hais txog kev ua kom tob zuj zus rau kev lag luam-taw qhia kev hloov kho ntawm cov hluav taws xob hluav taws xob hluav taws xob tsim hluav taws xob ntawm tus nqi hluav taws xob
Ⅶ.Tiv tauj peb
Yog tias koj xav paub ntau ntxiv txog kev txheeb xyuas, pls tiv tauj peb.
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