Ⅰ.Ongororo yeMain Influencing Factors
1. Impact yekabhoni isina kwayakarerekera mutemo
Munguva ye75th UN General Assembly mu 2020, China yakaronga izvozvo “carbon dioxide emissions inofanira kuwedzera 2030 uye zadzisa kabhoni neutralization panosvika 2060”.
Parizvino, chinangwa ichi chakapinzwa zviri pamutemo mukuronga kwekutonga kwehurumende yeChina, zvose mumisangano yeruzhinji nematongerwo enyika.
Zvinoenderana neazvino tekinoroji yekugadzira yeChina, kabhoni emissions kutonga munguva pfupi inogona kuderedza kugadzirwa kwesimbi. Naizvozvo, kubva kune macro forecast, kugadzirwa kwesimbi kweramangwana kuchaderedzwa.
Maitiro aya akaratidzwa mudenderedzwa rakapihwa nehurumende yekanzuru yeTangshan, China chikuru chekugadzira simbi, muna Kurume 19,2021, pamatanho ekubika kudzikamisa kugadzirwa uye kuderedza kuburitswa kwemabhizinesi esimbi nesimbi.
Chiziviso chinoda izvozvo, pamusoro pe 3 standard mabhizinesi ,14 emabhizinesi asara anogumira 50 kugadzirwa muna Chikunguru ,30 kusvika December, uye 16 kusvika December.
Mushure mekuburitswa zviri pamutemo kwegwaro iri, mitengo yesimbi yakakwira zvakanyanya. (ndapota tarisa pazasi mufananidzo)
Source: MySteel.com
2. Indasitiri tekinoroji zvipingaidzo
Kuti uwane chinangwa che carbon neutralization, zvehurumende, pamusoro pekudzikamisa kugadzirwa kwemabhizinesi ane hombe kabhoni emissions, zvinodikanwa kuvandudza tekinoroji yekugadzira yemabhizinesi.
Parizvino, gwara rekuchenesa tekinoroji yekugadzira muChina rakaita seinotevera:
- Yemagetsi choto simbi panzvimbo yechinyakare choto kugadzira simbi.
- Hydrogen energy steelmaking inotsiva maitiro echinyakare.
Mutengo wekare unowedzera ne 10-30% nekuda kwekushomeka kwezvakarashwa zvekushandisa, masimba emagetsi uye zvipingamupinyi zvemitengo muChina, nepo iyo yekupedzisira inoda kubudisa hydrogen kuburikidza nemvura ye electrolytic, iyo inodziviswawo nezviwanikwa zvemagetsi, uye mutengo unowedzera 20-30%.
Munguva pfupi, simbi kugadzirwa mabhizinesi tekinoroji kusimudzira matambudziko, haigone kukurumidza kusangana nezvinodiwa zvekudzikisa emission. Saka kugona munguva pfupi, zvakaoma kupora.
3. Inflation impact
Nekuverenga iyo China Monetary Policy Implementation Report yakapihwa neCentral Bank yeChina, takaona kuti denda idzva rekorona rakakanganisa zvakanyanya kushanda kwehupfumi, kunyangwe China zvishoma nezvishoma yakatangazve kugadzira mushure mechikamu chechipiri, asi mukuderera kwehupfumi hwenyika, kuitira kukurudzira kushandiswa mudzimba, wechipiri, chikamu chechitatu nechina chatora mutemo wemari wakasununguka.
Izvi zvinotungamira zvakananga kukuwedzera kwemusika liquidity, zvichiita kuti mitengo ikwire.
Iyo PPI yave kukura kubva munaNovember apfuura, uye kuwedzera kwakawedzera zvishoma nezvishoma. (PPI chiyero chemaitiro uye dhigirii reshanduko mumitengo yekare-yefekitari yemabhizinesi emaindasitiri)
Source: National Bureau of Statistics yeChina
Ⅱ.Mhedziso
Pasi pesimba repolicy, Musika weChina wesimbi ikozvino unopa kusaenzana pakati pekupa uye kudiwa munguva pfupi. Kunyangwe simbi nesimbi chete kugadzirwa munzvimbo yeTangshan ishoma ikozvino, mushure mekupinda mumwaka wekuvhuvhu nechando muhafu yechipiri yegore, mabhizinesi ekugadzira simbi nesimbi mune dzimwe nzvimbo dzekuchamhembe achadzorwawo, izvo zvinogona kukonzera kumwe kukanganisa pamusika.
Kana tichida kugadzirisa dambudziko iri kubva kumudzi, tinoda makambani esimbi kusimudzira tekinoroji yavo. Asi maererano nedata, makambani makuru mashoma ehurumende esimbi ari kuita chiyereso chehunyanzvi hutsva. Saka, zvinogona kufanotaurwa kuti kusaenzana kwekupa-kuda kucharamba kuchienderera pakupera kwegore.
Mumamiriro ezvinhu edenda, nyika kazhinji yakagamuchira loose monetary policy, China haina mutsauko. Nyangwe, kutanga mukati 2021, hurumende yakatora mutemo wakasimba wezvemari kuti uderedze kukwira kwemitengo, zvichida kusvika pamwero wakati kudzivirira kukwira kwemitengo yesimbi. Zvisinei, pasi pesimba rekunze kwenyika, mhedzisiro yekupedzisira yakaoma kuziva.
Nezve mutengo wesimbi muhafu yechipiri yegore, isu tinofunga kuti ichachinja zvishoma uye ichisimuka zvishoma nezvishoma.
Ⅲ.Reference
[1] Kuda kuva “yakaoma”! Carbon peaking uye kabhoni kusarerekera kunotyaira kusimudzira kwemhando yepamusoro yeindasitiri yesimbi.
[2] Musangano uyu wakaronga “14Chirongwa cheMakore mashanu” ye carbon peaking uye carbon neutrality basa.
[3] Tangshan Iron uye Simbi: Kurambidzwa kwegore negore kwakapfuura 50%, uye mitengo yakakwira kutsva kwemakore gumi nematatu.
[4] People's Bank of China. China's Monetary Policy Execution Report yeQ1-Q4 2020.
[5] Tangshan Guta Hofisi yeBoka Rinotungamira reAtmospheric Pollution Prevention and Control. Ziviso paKuzivisa Kurambidzwa Kwekugadzira uye Emission Kudzikisa Matanho eSimbi Indasitiri Enterprises.
[6]WANG Guo-jun，ZHU Qing-de，WEI Guo-li.Kuenzanisa Kwemari Pakati peEAF Steel uye Converter Steel,2019[10]
Disclaimer:
Mhedziso yemushumo ndeyekutarisa chete.