Ⅰ.Kuongororwa kwemitengo ichangoburwa:
1. Supply and demand
In 2020, nyika yepamusoro yekugadzira simbi iChina, iyo yepamusoro simbi inotengeswa kunze ivhu zvakare China, uye yechipiri iIndia. Uye nekuti kugadzirwa kweIndia parizvino kwakaganhurirwa nekukanganisa kweCOVID, kutengeswa kukuru kwesimbi pasi rose kuchiri kufanira kuzadzikiswa kuburikidza nekutengesa kunze kwenyika kweChina. Zvisinei, zvinoenderana nezvino kuChina zvekuchengetedza nharaunda zvinodiwa, mushure meJuly, mafekitari ese esimbi anofanira kuganhurira kugadzirwa ne 30% kusvika December. Uyezve, masangano anodzora ari kuramba achiwedzera kuomarara mukutarisa kupedzwa kwezviratidzo. Zvinotarisirwa kuti pasi rose kudiwa kwesimbi kucharamba kuchikwira nekuda kwemitemo yekusimudzira hupfumi mune ramangwana. Pakupera kwaDecember, kusaenzana pakati pekupa nezvinodiwa kucharamba kuripo munguva yepakati.
2. Mutengo wemagetsi
Mutengo wemitengo yemagetsi unogona kukwira mune ramangwana. Musika weChina wekutengesa kabhoni wakawedzera uye wakavhurwa: Makambani ekugadzira magetsi anozoverengerwa mune kabhoni emission quota manejimendi.
3. Iron ore mutengo
Zvinoenderana nekuongororwa kwecustom import data, mutengo wekunze wesimbi wakawedzera neavhareji ye 29% kubva muna Ndira kusvika Chikumi.
Pamusoro pe, mutengo wemwedzi unoratidza nhanho-up maitiro. Maererano nemhinduro yemusika, mutengo wesimbi wesimbi hausati uchidzika pasi muhafu yechipiri yegore.
4. Inflation impact
Maererano neWorld Bank data, Inflation, mitengo yevatengi (gore negore %) (pic1)zvinoratidza kuti hupfumi hwenyika huri kuramba huchidzikira kwemakore matatu akatevedzana. Kubatwa nedenda, kuderera kwe 2020 zvakatonyanya kutaurwa. Hurumende dzenyika dzakasiyana-siyana dzakatora mitemo ine chekuita nezvemari yakasununguka, zvichiita kuti kuwedzera kunoramba kuripo kwenjodzi yekukwira kwemitengo.
Izvi zvakakanganisawo kuwedzera kwemitengo yesimbi pane macro level.
Pic 1 Inflation,mitengo yevatengi(pagore%)2010-020
Ⅱ.Zvikonzero zveChina yakaderera mitengo yesimbi munaJune:
1.Kupindira kwehurumende
Pakupera kwaMay, iyo China Iron uye Steel Association(CISA) akadaidza vagadziri vakawanda vesimbi muChina kumusangano, iyo yakaumba chiratidzo chekurova kumusika. Naizvozvo, simbi yeramangwana mitengo yakaita nekukurumidza uye yakadonha, uye mitengo yenzvimbo yakadonha pamwe chete nemitengo yeramangwana.
2.Kudiwa kwemumba
Chikumi inguva yekunaya kwemvura, Kudiwa kwesimbi yekuvaka kweChina kwakadzikira
3.mutemo wemitero
Mumutemo wakabudiswa muna Kubvumbi 26, iyo China Taxation Bureau yakadzima kudzoserwa mutero kwe 146 zvigadzirwa zvesimbi. Izvi zvakonzera kudzikiswa kwekutengeswa kwezvimwe zvinhu kunze kwenyika, uye kudiwa kwesimbi kwakadzvinyirirwa.
Ⅲ.Mhedziso
Mitemo inogona kudzora mitengo munguva pfupi, asi haigone kukanganisa kushanduka kwemutengo wehuwandu munguva refu. Kazhinji, tisingasanganisire kupindira kwehurumende, munzvimbo yakakwana yemusika, mitengo yezvigadzirwa zveramangwana ichachinja-chinja 100-300 RMB/TON kubva pamitengo iripo.
Maererano nemamiriro ezvinhu aripo, zvinotarisirwa kuti zvinhu izvi zvichengetedzwe kusvika Gumiguru gore rino.
Ⅳ.Reference
[1]China Customs: Iron ore yeChina inotengeswa kubva muna Ndira kusvika Chivabvu
[2]Hofisi yeTangshan City yeAtmospheric Pollution Prevention and Control yakaburitsa iyo “Tangshan Guta Chikunguru Mhepo Yekuvandudza Hunhu Hurongwa”
[3]Rangu simbi remangwana trend chart
[4]Musika wekutengesa weCarbon emissions wakatangwa zviri pamutemo
[5]Chiziviso kubva kuHurumende Taxation Administration maererano nekukanzurwa kwemitero yekunze kune zvimwe zvigadzirwa zvesimbi
[6]Tangshan yakashevedza mabhizinesi ese ekugadzira simbi muguta
[7]People's Bank of China yakafunga kudzikisa chiyero chinodiwa chemasangano emari muna Chikunguru 15, 2021.
Ⅶ.Taura nesu
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